The Wagner PMC continues to grind the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut. Zelensky sends more and more units into this meat grinder, into the destructive funnel that sucks in the best units of the AFU and mercenaries. Why has Zelensky been so stubborn on Bakhmut? Why since December 20, when I challenged him comically from the artillery guns of the Wagner PMC, has Zelenski fallen for it like a boy and stuck to Bakhmut? And our intimate dialogue with him has been going on for four months now. We are both enjoying ourselves, but the orgasm never came.
What is the secret of the Bakhmut meat grinder? Bakhmut's strategic role is not that great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Chasov Yar: settlements that are part of the so-called "Donbass ring" and form a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortification; on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a quick victory over Ukraine, a road to the Dnieper or even the capture of Donbass.
Ukraine's top leadership argues endlessly about the need to hold Bakhmut. They are trying to rock this town as a sacred symbol. They rock the sacredness in the morning, decide in the evening to retreat, and the next morning throw in thousands of soldiers again, and so on ad infinitum. 0055番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-JHn2)2023/04/15(土) 21:25:23.88ID:LwFrlX3/a ウクライナが勝利することに疑念はない=トルドー加首相
https://www.ukrinform.jp/rubric-ato/3696177-ukurainaga-sheng-lisurukotoni-yi-nianhanaitorudo-jia-shou-xiang.html0056番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:25:36.48ID:YUuEwEN5a The Ukrainian army has amassed enough forces. About 200 thousand already sufficiently trained fighters, who have undergone two to three months of training and harmonization, are ready to carry out combat tasks. The number of weapons and ammunition is sufficient for these 200 thousand to go on the offensive in different directions.
The troops, ready for the counter-offensive, are in the areas of concentration - they have everything they need. In those tank wedges, which they try to hammer into the defense of PMC Wagner by dozens every day, the AFU loses from 30 to 50 pieces of equipment every day, and they have no problems with it. And as for people, they have, as they say at the front, no limit.
But the attack announced first for December 20, then for January 1, then for the end of January, then for February 24, then for April 3-5 and now for April 15 is postponed each time. The Ukrainian army is in concentration areas, hoofing and preparing to move forward. But, as they say, "a donkey that has stood in the shade will not work in the sun". If the AFU does not go on the offensive soon, it will begin to gradually lose its combat potential. The war will come to a standstill, and those territories that are now under the control of the Russian Federation may remain at the disposal of the Russian Federation for years to come. 0057番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:26:39.34ID:YUuEwEN5a Political aspects of Bakhmut
Politically Bakhmut is of little interest to the Kiev regime, it is more of a destabilising factor than a factor in holding its ground. Every outcry on Bakhmut, every captured soldier, every hundred killed hits Zelensky and the AFU leadership much harder than the pluses they get from holding the remnants of this town.
That said, the prolonged battle for Bakhmut is extremely beneficial to Russian forces, as they have already snatched a large chunk of Ukrainian territory in 2022. If the special operation remains within these borders, give or take a couple of tens of kilometres, it will solve many of the problems of the SSR. Bakhmut gives the Russian army an opportunity to accumulate forces, occupy advantageous defensive lines, deal with internal problems, prepare the mobilized and meet any number of counteroffensive insurgents in full armor.
Bakhmut is extremely advantageous for us, we grind down the Ukrainian army there and hold back their manoeuvres.
Any mid-level commander knows that if you have created tension for the enemy in some place and have enough reserves, you need to make a manoeuvre and strike close by - where the enemy is not ready and where it will break. The most logical move by the AFU would be to bounce back from Bakhmut and make sharp flank strikes to try to break through our defences. However, every day from Chasov Yar columns of equipment come and go, and every day, before reaching the front line, AFU fighters die by the hundreds, dotting the "road of death" and the surrounding fields with thousands of dead bodies and hundreds of burnt-out armoured vehicles, going to the slaughter. 0058番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (ワッチョイ 07af-S3w6)2023/04/15(土) 21:27:02.25ID:8t81mVJI0 プリコジンのロシアソース見るとウクライナ軍かかってこいで締めてるんだけど切り抜き酷すぎだろw 0059番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:30:03.02ID:YUuEwEN5a A dramatic pause
As is well known, the military operation on the Ukrainian side is tactically run by the Ukrainian military and strategically by the so-called Western coalition led by Britain and the US. At the beginning of April there was a leak of documents from the Pentagon. The documents themselves pose no strategic danger. They were a collection of everything from scratch - most of it from open sources. But the leak was widely publicized, and immediately after it the active statements of the sources close to Pentagon about the necessity to put the brakes on the offensive announced for April 15 till the summer period began. Why has the army ready for an offensive been again delayed at its borders and why has the "last Nanai warning" of 15 April, the final deadline for the Ukrainian offensive, been pushed back to summer again? After all, it would have been far more painful for Russia to launch a Ukrainian offensive with imminent reputational losses before 9 May, in case of any minimal success of a few meters in their nominal direction. And why is the Ukrainian army "giving a head start" again? It is the Western coalition that takes "dramatic pauses", it is this group that postpones the AFU offensive every time.
Perhaps 21-year-old Jack Teixeira leaked the documents foolishly, perhaps he was used "underhandedly", but if that leak hadn't happened, it would surely have been invented the next day. I emphasize that the documents themselves are not strategic and do not pose any threat to the AFU once they are published. And hence cannot add to the risks of the AFU in any way in the event of an attack on them. 0060番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (ワッチョイW 673a-1STl)2023/04/15(土) 21:30:30.48ID:duP7TJYQ0>>31 多少肯定的に書いてるけどどっちにしろバフムト取って終わりだとこんなに犠牲出した意味がわからんよ バフムトは中継点でその先に攻め込むために血で血を洗う戦いをやってると言ってたのに 中継点だけ取って終わりにしようってのはもう戦争続けられないと言ってるようなものでは 0061番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (ワッチョイ 07af-S3w6)2023/04/15(土) 21:30:47.94ID:8t81mVJI0 AFUはウクライナ軍なw 0062番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (ワッチョイW 67a0-TWDe)2023/04/15(土) 21:31:51.01ID:3Iu0LNjL0 バハムートとっても維持なんかできる訳ない 0063番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:32:40.42ID:YUuEwEN5a There are a huge number of conspiracy theories about the events of the 1990s and then 2014 - the Maidan in Ukraine and the transition of Crimea to Russian control. There are a huge number of different prophecies telling the meaning of these events. One thing is absolutely clear - the US and the Anglo-Saxon group have been hatching a plan to destroy the USSR as their main geopolitical rival for a long time. In the late 80's and early 90's they managed to put a huge number of agents of influence on the ruling top of the USSR, to give new meanings that changed the ideology of this ruling top, to get the population hooked on the consumerist needle and collapse of the USSR. The collapse of the USSR was the most painful, the most severe collapse of an empire in hundreds of years, but it did not lead to the complete destruction of Russia and the division of it into smaller principalities. In the bowels of the American secret services a plan has long been hatched to carry out the next step towards the complete collapse of Russia, which is fully in line with today's US doctrine.
The fragmentation of African states, the collapse of the former Warsaw Pact countries. The smaller the country, the easier it is to govern, the more financially dependent it is, the more docile it is. 0064番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:35:21.05ID:YUuEwEN5a The basis of modern US policy is financial neocolonialism. This is when even the most subsoil-rich countries do not process the wealth of their subsoil, but are fully incorporated into the production and financial flows offered by "Western partners" - becoming American satellites, subcontractors and puppets. Therefore, the final task of the US in the Ukrainian confrontation is to launch powerful centrifugal impulses in Russia, weaken power and national consciousness in the society and force it to turn around to face the West - just as it did in the early 1990s. Of course, in order to control the political situation in the country, it is paramount to gain control over the financial instruments within the system, over production capacity and subsoil resources.
Now that the special operation has begun and the Russian Federation has failed to achieve the results the public expected, the U.S. has an opportunity to return to its original plan. The original plan, to reiterate, was to break up the Soviet Union, then walk the perimeter of the country and turn its former allies away from Russia. In 30 years with many of the former republics this almost succeeded. We lost first full control and then good neighbourly relations. 0065番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:38:23.44ID:YUuEwEN5a "Deep State".
Russia's collapse cannot happen militarily. The forests, marshes, vast territories, and climatic specifics reliably protect the country's territory, making it an enormous fortification. Always in history, the enemy who reached Moscow eventually fled in disgrace, turning the "road of victory" into the "road of death" on the way back.
Why are the Anglo-Saxons holding back Zelensky by staging internal conflicts and stalling the offensive? Precisely in order to siphon off the main prize - the break-up of Russia into a multitude of principalities. The US doesn't need a quick war. They need a war that will lead to the re-definition of the "deep state" and its victory.
"The deep state" is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and an agenda of their own. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing government, some for those who have long been on the run, but, thanks to their connections, they remain in their seats after the elder has fled. A typical example of a "deep state" is the oppletions of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich and so on. Dvorkovich, whom I have mentioned many times, who fled abroad, left behind a whole tail of scum that were under him and above him, and who are elements of this "deep state". "The deep state" endlessly leaks information and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for its own interests. The deep state is easy to approach because it is a sponge within the country that is red on one side, black on the other, white on the third and green on the fourth. And on each side, having a link to a part of the deep state, you can get to the centre of it. Russia's deep state today is in serious crisis. 0066番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:39:50.03ID:YUuEwEN5a Many of those who only yesterday supported the special operation are now in doubts or categorically against what is happening. Representatives of the deep state want urgently to return to their ordinary lives, their old habits and comfort. "The deep state is cunning and disingenuous, Joseph Prigozhin's talk is a prime example of this. They are willing to mimic anyone. It is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon. In meetings they remain silent, expressing their doubts. And in bureaucratic decision-making, they inhibit any action aimed at winning this war. Since bureaucracy in Russia today is at an exorbitant level, within the framework of "legal bureaucracy" it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top leadership aimed at victory. These are the internal enemies. In Alexander Dmitrievich Beglov's theory, this is called the "bureaucratic sieve" - a sieve you can get into but cannot get out of. 0067番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (オッペケ Srfb-t/w9)2023/04/15(土) 21:43:05.36ID:atMz4y+Qr ポーランドリトアニア連合の支配地域だった西と350年間ロシア文化が栄えた東はアイデンティティ的に水と油だから現実的に分離したほうがいい プーチンはそう言ってる 現実的なラインで分割しなければ同じ問題が延々と続いて軍事緊張が続く 各国の軍産複合体的にはおいしい話なのかもしれないが 0068番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:43:06.85ID:YUuEwEN5a Supergame
For the authorities and for society as a whole, it is now necessary to put some kind of thick end to the SWO. The ideal is to declare the end of USO, to let everyone know that Russia has achieved the results it planned, and in a sense we have indeed achieved them. We have ground up a huge number of AFU fighters and can report to ourselves that the USO tasks have been completed.
Theoretically Russia has already got that fat point by destroying a large part of Ukraine's active male population, by intimidating another part of it that has fled to Europe. Russia has cut off the Sea of Azov and a large chunk of the Black Sea, seized a fat chunk of Ukrainian territory and created a land corridor to Crimea. Now there is only one thing left to do: to entrench itself firmly in the territories it already has. But there is a catch - if Ukraine used to be part of former Russia, it is now a completely nationally oriented state.
Before February 24, 2022 the European Union was greedy to give Ukraine tens of millions of dollars, but now they are taking tens of billions for the war. Certainly, some of these funds are pleasing the pockets of Ukraine's ruling elite, who benefit from the conflict. Many of those who yesterday were forgotten have now been given a new chance for self-fulfilment and enrichment. 0069番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:45:34.31ID:YUuEwEN5a Ukraine needs victory, the US needs a process
Even though the Ukrainian leadership is enriching itself, the political leadership needs a victory due to heavy casualties at the front and general fatigue from the war. For Russia, there is always the risk that the situation on the front could deteriorate once a counter-offensive is launched. The preservation of existing borders by 24 February 2023 is the kind of exchange the US can offer the Russian leadership today, as a negotiating position. This is what a "dramatic pause" is for. If the authorities refuse, the AFU will go on the offensive. In this situation, there could be various options for the development of events. One of them is that the AFU will encounter the Russian defense, suffer serious losses, after which a huge counter-offensive will be launched by the Russian troops to the borders of the DPR, or to the Dnieper, or even to Poland. But given today's dynamics and issues, such a counteroffensive is, to put it mildly, not very likely. The second option is that the Ukrainian army will launch a counteroffensive and somewhere manage to break through the defenses.
In this case, the army, which for years considered itself to be one of the best armies in the world, could first start to decadent, and then the situation would degrade, as it did after the defeatist wars of the early twentieth century - the Finnish and Japanese wars - and the tragic events of 1917. 0070番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:47:50.83ID:YUuEwEN5a This could lead to a global change in Russian society. The people are already looking for someone to blame for the fact that we are not the strongest army in the world, and in this situation they will be looking for the "extreme". And those 'guilty' will undoubtedly be the representatives of the 'deep state'. That is, those people who at the moment are as far away as possible from the theatre of military operations, trying not to lose their capital, to live a familiar life, and this is absolutely unacceptable to a people tired of war and losing the taste of victory.
The patriots' longing for justice may reflect badly on the deep state, mired in luxury and bureaucracy.
In this case, the supreme power of Russia is not threatened because it is a symbol of national unity and resistance against the West, and this is the basis of today's existence and the main explanation of any problems for patriotic forces inside Russia.
The "deep state" will push the supreme power to make serious concessions. And, in the existing tradition of the "deep state", at any change they will try to improve their position by any means, including betrayal of Russia's interests. Their task is not the country and the people, their task is their own position in society, their own comfort and their own capital. 0071番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:53:02.93ID:YUuEwEN5a Get to the bottom
If you are falling down, if the weight of your problems does not make you better, but drags you to the bottom, there is an expression: "hit bottom, then push off and resurface up again". This is what Americans fear. They are afraid that excessive pressure on Russia and increasing domestic problems could pull it to the bottom. And if Russia reaches the bottom, and shakes off the weight of the "deep state", then it will float up like a huge sea monster, demolishing everything in its path, including the U.S. plans.
There are numerous examples of this in world history. China in the middle of the 20th century, being one of the poorest countries in the world, under partial occupation, Germany after the First World War, Japan after the Second World War, Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. All of them resurfaced by pushing back from the bottom.
Radical national sentiments will resurface as after any military defeat, the Russian military industry will start working with a tenfold effort. Economic efficiency will supplant sluggish, inefficient state capital. The state will be rid of bureaucracy, processes will become transparent, and Russia will step by step become a Bristling Military Monster that the international community will have to more than reckon with, bending so that at every deflection we see their buttocks extended.
If we do not prove that we are militarily strong, no one will reckon with us, and they will twist us as they please. It is extremely disadvantageous to America for Russia to hit bottom and resurface. They want a sluggish process in which they negotiate with the elites, with the "deep state", and then convince the top political leadership of the country to make new concessions step by step. 0072番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:55:41.01ID:YUuEwEN5a If there are soft arrangements, then, according to the American principle of gradual humiliation, first the Friedmans and Chubais will be returned to Russia, then the Khodorkovsky and Dvorkovich. Then the elites will gradually be liberalised and the "deep state" will take them in out of a sense of self-preservation, transforming itself from black or red to blue or pink.
Of course, this development is disadvantageous to Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky, they need to resist and fight back. But if these processes happen fast enough, within a year or two, a liberalized, Americanized, facing the West, "deep state" will force the Russian authorities to make concessions and under various pretexts return to Ukraine those territories that are now under our control, which the West considers occupied.
These processes with the question "Why did we go to war then?" will certainly launch the mechanism of centrifugal forces in the regions. And the Americans will get their way. In that situation the main US plan with the, at first glance, nice-looking "soft peace agreement" will be implemented.
Russia cannot accept any kind of agreement, only a fair fight. If we come out of this fight battered, there is nothing wrong with it. Russia's fortifications do not allow us to penetrate into its depths. And the Russian people have never been and will never be broken. Therefore - Only a Fair Fight! And the sooner it begins, the better.
To sum up. The Ukrainians are ready to attack. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for Russia to heal itself and become the Strongest State is an attack by the AFU, in which no handouts or negotiations will be possible.
And either the AFU will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, build up its muscles and tear its rivals apart again in a fair fight. That is why I believe that the option of bargaining is impossible for the future of Russia. 0073番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (アウアウウー Sacb-lNE1)2023/04/15(土) 21:56:35.97ID:YUuEwEN5a See you at Bakhmut. 0074番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (ワッチョイ 07af-S3w6)2023/04/15(土) 22:20:14.34ID:8t81mVJI0 超約 お互い準備出来てんだからグチグチ言い訳してないでさっさと攻めてこい 勝とうが負けようが完全決着まで何度でもやったるわ それがDSと戦うロシアとロシア国民の宿命だ舐めんなよゼレ公w 0075番組の途中ですがアフィサイトへの転載は禁止です (ラクッペペ MM8f-Xvx2)2023/04/16(日) 01:23:17.32ID:QIYT7IanM>>54